April Showers bring May flooding?

    Yes that title does say may flooding and that without a doubt encompasses the feeling for many. From the Midwest to the deep south and to the rivers of Ohio to the lakes of Vermont the flooding turned lives upside down. Water accumulated in areas that have never seen water before. Of these stories the ongoing fight against the mighty Mississippi which overflowed its banks.

    Spring rains topping a foot poured down over the Missouri and Illinois river's, causing them to swell to record proportions. With the Mississippi and these two rivers swollen and coming together the making of a flooding of epic proportions was on tap.

    Now people all along the river south of Memphis where the river crested already await devastating waters to sweep through. many now prepare with sandbags and homemade levees to keep out any surge. One area watching the river closley is southern lousiana where the decision to open up the Morganza Spillway may be made. Which if opened will flood nearly three million acres of land all the way from just north of lake Pontchartrain to the gulf of Mexico. Putting thousands of homes at risk and tainting the wetlands with massive amounts of polluted freshwater. 

    it can now only be hoped that the army corp. of engineers makes the right decision at the right time.


  

A winter warm up on the way for some

    For many this winter has been a struggle. A battle between snow, bills, and ice. Much of the nation suffered through cold spells that have not been seen since the 1980's. others have shoveled through record snowfall. Even some knocking ice off tree branches and scraping car windows to remove ice. Through it all records have fallen, ice has grown, and the temperature has decreased. Though do not remorse, a well needed warm up may be on its way.
     A frigid trough that had been stationed over major sections of the US will be deteriorating in the next few days. This will allow for a large warm up for large parts of the US. Temperatures by the end of next week may reach 60 degrees in some of the Northeast. For many this will be a sign of spring being around the corner. Unfortunately what comes with warm temperatures can be flooding. Snow packs across a majority of the US are still high, especially in the mid south where they just had another dumping of snow.
   Also not to be the bringer of more bad news, winter is not over. The chance for more winter storms is possible, but for now the pattern is positive. In past years march has shown to be a last chance for winter to have its final say, and it has. With two years now having has major storms during early march. Also do not forget the flooding that occurred in the Midwest when a warm up occurred. The Red river in DE Moines overflowed its banks causing wide spread flooding. On top of that a blizzard struck the area during the flooding. This is not to say that a massive flood in many parts will be a given. This is just a warning to not let your guard down because the warm weather has a way of drawing people in. But, for now, enjoy the coming warmth, and make the best of it.

A new week, A new storm

The next storm is going to be a monster. It will stretch from the Midwest all the way over to the Northeast. Already prompting many weather advisories across the Midwest. When it does come across it will pack precipitation varying from rain to ice to snow to sleet. This one will be tricky for many forecasters out there, and may surprise people depending on what happens.

At this point in time it seems to be mostly a ice event for the Northeast, with freezing rain and sleet the main player. Though in upstate new York it will be mostly snow, with high snow totals. The Midwest on the other hand will see a large snowstorm. At first many cities like Kansas city will be seeing ice, but that will quickly turn over to snow overnight. Places like Chicago on the other hand will be seeing all snow, and lots of it. In the location where snow will be mostly present accumulation ranging from 6''-12'' will be expected.

Ice is one of the worrisome parts of this storm. With many places preparing for a major ice event, it is very important for there to be accuracy on the current track for the storm. Unfortunately just like the last one, there is not full consensus us on one track. Which may lead some to believe that there might be surprise or two. That is not out of the question, but it seems unlikely. Do not go putting money on this storm just yet is what is being told here.

That's what can be told at this moment in time, all of it is subject to change and probably will within say, the next few hours, but that's meteorology for ya. Just be aware and ready for anything that can happen, because places where ice is foretasted could become all snow or all rain depending on the track now.

After the snow...

This was one of the fastest accumulations i have ever seen in my life.
The day was relaxed and some hectic moments coming near the end.
I will certainly write about that, but more on the storm for now.



This storm dropped amazing amounts of snow for its brief visit.
In only a short amount of time spanning 5-6 hours many places accumulated over a foot of snow.
For those along the east coast, it came to be a luckily chance that the storm did not come during another time.
An example of what would have happened if it did became present in Washington D.C. where drivers became trapped on the George Washington expressway. Snow there came down fast and hard trapping panicked drivers. This situation could have occurred across the east coast. Fortunately it did not hit during rush hour.

It happened to be that the bombing out of this storm was very intense that thunder snow and rates of 3'' per hour were experienced across the board. Winds were blustery which actually helped allow the accumulation on tree branches stay to a minimum. Though it was very minimal, snow accumulation on tree branches was heavy. Causing power outages when the branches could hold no more. Another surface other than branches that had heavy snow accumulation would be the roads. The roads were very dangerous today and remain so.

Today was a wild day for me. After going on a walk me and others came upon a hill where cars had repeatedly got stuck. At one moment we were helping one man get out when another two cars became stuck. We then moved on to help them when another good citizen came by with a SUV to tow out the stranded motorist. That motorist did not get up until the rope that was towing him snapped three times. The funny moments were when there were three different cars stuck out once and a line of other cars who definitely did not have four wheel drive were waiting to go up the hill. What were these people thinking! When three cars are stuck what makes you think you want to go up that hill! "OOOh, i want to get shoveled out first, let me get stuck, let me get stuck!". Nooo, dont do that, just turn around! well lets hope that they decided to turn around.

Not to be the bringer of bad news, but more snow is expected through the week and beyond....

Snowstorm Update... and a comment on the morning surprise!

The snow is coming down heavy at this moment, still looking out for thunder snow. Accumulations have been ranging from 4''-6'' in the I-95 corridor currently. Local and larger weather stations have been reporting that another 6 inches may fall before all is said and done. Just as before other areas around Philly, Boston, and New York may see more than another 6'' of snow. That all depends on the explosiveness of this storm, which has shown to be pretty explosive already. Snow rates in many areas now are at 1''-3'' of snow per hour already. Snow rates like that will taper off as the night wears on, but accumulating snow will fall till 1am or later depending on your area.

New snow fall totals and predictions are out, though are still subject to change. Current snow forecasts put the bulls eye of snow just west of the Philadelphia area. With forecast of above 12'', even up to 15'' of snow in local sections.

New Snow Forecast

Philadelphia- 10''-15'' ( less in some areas)


New York- 9''-14''


Boston- 9''-12''


Baltimore- 5''-8''

Now a comment on the morning snow surprise. I only comment on this because of the implications it had on the area. Treacherous and dangerous travel snarled morning travel  all across the east coast. Most issues took place in east-southern Pa.  where people woke up to an inch of snow already on the ground and more falling. Then it quickly picked up causing blinding conditions on the roads and exasperating school pick ups. many schools caught off guard sent kids home early and or never got the kids to school.

With all of this most would wonder why none of the weather station correctly forecasted this snow event. The honest fact to accept is that many meteorologist just lost hold on there roots of basic forecasting. Blame cannot go to them for the timing, no one expected that, and it could not be forecasted. Unfortunately what they can be blamed on is the type of precipitation that fell. It would seem that if they had understood the atmospheric conditions at the time many would have been spared the rough travel. The reason for the snow came when the temperatures started out below freezing. At this moment the snow stuck and accumulated fast. Snowfall rates increased to the point that temperatures decreased, and then suppressed as the morning goes on. The final result being 3''-6'' of snow across Southern P.a. and the east coast.  Why is this a mistake? This is because this would have been forecastable if meteorologist had just incorporating that basic rule into there forecasts. Do not lose faith in the forecast's, just be more aware of the forecast, and enjoy your snowstorm and stay off the roads.

Nor'easter on the Prowl

This week of January has shown to be as bitterly cold as its predecessors. Allowing for record cold temperatures to infiltrate the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The blocking arctic high that had kept the temperatures as low as they had been is also a steering mechanism. Along the high is the Jet Stream, which is the steering force for many low pressure systems. In this case making this storm ride along it right up the east coast.

 The Low itself had dipped into the warm Gulf of Mexico, which intern saturated it. Filling it with moisture laden air from the Gulf. Once this air was pushed into the system, it strengthened and gathered more moisture. This system is now going to meet up with its southern branch, which as of today has made its way through the Appalachians. That southern branch making upper air instability.Once these two systems come together in weather terms what people call "a bomb" will be formed. This certain system will bomb out because it will meet up with a upper air disturbance, making instability in the atmosphere. Finally allowing a full fledged Nor'easter to lash the east coast.

This will not be a extremely strong Nor'easter, but it will do its damage, It will move through with heavy snow and breezy conditions. This making for slippery and dangerous travel along the I-95 corridor tonight. Luckily this storm will move quickly and by morning will be out of most of the North East, though Boston should still be seeing snow until late morning. As expected, if the storm is moving at a good clip that will limit its ability to drop excessive amounts of the white stuff. That does not mean there will not be high amounts of snow, it just means you will not be seeing the 2+ feet of snow we saw in December.

Snow Amounts

New York- 6''-12''


Boston- 8''-12''   (Locally 12''+)


Philadelphia- 8''-12''   (Locally 12''+)


Baltimore- 5''-8''


Washington D.C.- 5''-8''