Impending Heat Wave and Drought Update

   The heat is back, and with vengeance. For the coming weekend, temperatures will break 90 along the I-95 corridor. Washington to New York will head into the low to mid 90s, while Boston will flirt with 90. During these hot days the humidity will not take a day off, nor will the thunderstorms, as both will be present for the weekend.

GFS 12z June 9 hrs 54, 78, 102, and 198

   The daytime will be hot and muggy, allowing storms to pop up along a frontal boundary. With significant instability, some severe storms are bound to form. While wind shear should not be a factor, limiting the ability of tornado formation, the threat of damaging winds, heavy rain, and hail will exist. Once the storms exit, and the 90s leave, will we be in the clear?

   Technically, yes, the skies will be clear, but the temperatures will not go down all that much. The week ahead is warm for the I-95 corridor. The interior will be warm, but not in the 90s. Closer to the Great Lakes temperatures should be more seasonable.    

   Not a lot of rain is forecast for the I-95 corridor over the next 5 days, but for interior portions of the Northeast, it will be rainy and cooler. Rain amount will range from .50-2 inches from western Pennsylvania to western Maine.

   Drought Update: Over the past 14 days, the Mid Atlantic and Northeast have picked up 2-4 inches of rain, 6+ in local areas. In Northeast Pennsylvania, this rain has been beneficial as they ranged closer to 3-5 inches of rain in the past 14 days, hopefully putting a dent in their drought. Location previously in moderate drought, will continue to be there, as the rain, however beneficial, did not suffice. Deficits there range from 4-10+ in below normal. Fortunately there is more rain in the forecast, but not so much in the areas that need it most. Short term points to continued drought conditions. Long term points to more normalized precipitation, and an end to the drought.